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Senate Republicans again coalesced behind President Donald Trump’s multibillion-dollar spending clawback package and propelled the legislation through its final procedural hurdle, again with the aid of Vice President JD Vance. 

Lawmakers will now go back and forth through 10 hours of debate on the bill, where Senate Democrats are expected to bleed time and slam the legislation for its cuts to foreign aid and public broadcasting funding.

Trump’s smaller, $9 billion package passed with nearly all Senate Republicans, while all Senate Democrats voted against it. Sens. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., were the only Republicans to vote against the bill. 

Once debate has wrapped up on the bill, lawmakers will go through another vote-a-rama, where an unlimited number of amendments can be offered for the bill by either side of the aisle. Democrats will likely try to sideline or derail the package, while the GOP is expected to offer an amendment that would spare about $400 million in international HIV and AIDS funding from the chopping block.

The carveout for the Bush-era President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) was agreed to ahead of the vote and is backed by the White House. Trimming funding from the program rattled some Senate Republicans, who publicly and privately warned they may not support the bill unless a fix was found.

However, slashing the funding cut from the package could prove a tricky sell to the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has called on Senate Republicans to not change the bill.

He’s been joined by fiscal hawks in the House Freedom Caucus, too, who have demanded that the Senate GOP stay the course on the rescissions package and warned that they would have serious issues if changes were made, stopping short of declaring a full-on rebellion against the bill.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., hoped that his colleagues in the lower chamber would play ball and pass the bill ahead of a looming Friday deadline.

‘There was a lot of interest among our members in doing something on the PEPFAR issue,’ he said ahead of the vote. ‘So, that’s reflected in the substitute, and we hope that if we can get this across the finish line in the Senate that the House will accept that one small modification.’

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The U.S. ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, on Tuesday called on Israeli authorities to ‘aggressively investigate’ the killing of Sayfollah Musallet, a 20-year-old Palestinian-American who was reportedly beaten to death by a gang of extremist settlers in the West Bank village of Sinjil on Friday.

‘We have asked Israel to aggressively investigate the murder of Saif Mussallet, an American citizen who was visiting family in Sinjil when he was beaten to death in the West Bank,’ Huckabee wrote on X. ‘There must be accountability for this criminal and terrorist act. Saif was only 20 years old.’

According to the family, Musallet was visiting the West Bank from Tampa, Florida, to reconnect with relatives and visit family-owned farmland. 

‘This is an unimaginable nightmare and injustice that no family should ever have to face,’ the family said in a statement. ‘We demand the U.S. State Department lead an immediate investigation and hold the Israeli settlers who killed Saif accountable for their crimes.’

Israeli military officials said the confrontation began when Palestinians threw rocks at settlers, lightly injuring two. IDF forces were deployed to the area and used non-lethal crowd control methods, the army said.

So far, no Israeli suspects have been arrested in connection with the killings. Two Israeli minors detained on Friday night for suspected involvement in public disturbances were later released to house arrest. A reserve soldier questioned by the military police over the shooting during the incident was also released.

The Palestinian Health Ministry said Musallet was fatally beaten during an attack by settlers in the area. Another man, 23-year-old Mohammed al-Shalabi, was shot in the chest and also killed during the same incident. 

Sources in the Israeli police told Haaretz newspaper that the lack of an autopsy and the fact that the bodies were not transferred to Israeli authorities may complicate the investigation.

A military court also released Abdullah Hamida, a Palestinian resident arrested during the settler raid, criticizing police conduct. During the hearing, the police representative admitted he was unaware that any Palestinians had been killed, and incorrectly claimed the only wounded were settlers.

The State Department acknowledged awareness of the incident but declined further comment, Reuters reports, citing ‘respect for the privacy of the family and loved ones.’

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President Donald Trump’s clawback of billions in funding for foreign aid and public broadcasting narrowly passed through its first hurdle in the Senate, but it still faces a rocky road ahead with dissent among the Senate GOP ranks.

Senate GOP leaders hoped that an agreement to carve out $400 million in global HIV and AIDS prevention funding will get some of the holdouts on board. However, doing so shrank the expected cuts from $9.4 billion to $9 billion.

But a trio of Senate Republicans joined with all Senate Democrats to vote against advancing the bill from the Senate Appropriations Committee, which required Vice President JD Vance to cast the deciding vote. 

Trump’s rescissions package would yank bank congressionally approved funding for foreign aid programs and public broadcasting. But some Senate Republicans have sounded the alarm and want changes made to the bill before it reaches the finish line.

The bill that advanced out of committee Tuesday includes just shy of $8 billion in cuts from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and over $1 billion from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB), the government-backed funding arm for NPR and PBS.

Republicans’ successful test vote comes after huddling with Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought, who worked to shore up support and apply pressure from the White House to get the ball rolling on the bill.

‘We’re fine with adjustments,’ Vought said. ‘This is still a great package, $9 billion, [it’s] substantially the same package, and the Senate has to work its will.’

While concerns were still raised about other aspects of the spending cuts package during the closed-door meeting, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., believed that carving out the cuts to Bush-era President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) helped ease concerns among lawmakers.

But the changes didn’t sway all Senate Republicans. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, bluntly said ‘no’ when asked if the PEPFAR carveout helped gain her support and argued, ‘I’d like to do some legislating.’ 

‘What a crazy thing, what a crazy thing,’ she said. ‘What have we been doing around here? We did a reconciliation bill. We’re doing a rescissions bill. We’re doing nominations. Nominations are important, but let’s, like, legislate.’

And Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, said she liked the changes but ultimately decided to vote against advancing the bill through its first hurdle.

Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., also joined in to vote against the bill. Fox News Digital reached out to his office for a statement on his decision to vote against the package. 

It now moves to yet another procedural vote, which, if successful, will open up 10 hours of total debate time on the bill and eventually set the stage for a vote-a-rama, where lawmakers on either side of the aisle can offer an unlimited number of amendments to the package.

But, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., made clear that he would prefer the Senate not make any changes to the bill.

However, that request already fell on deaf ears — as it did during the budget reconciliation process that unfolded in the upper chamber last month.

Those demands already have fiscal hawks in the House grumbling, but like the budget reconciliation process before it, an amended rescissions package will likely glide through the House GOP and onto Trump’s desk. 

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When senior State Department officials set out to trim the agency in the ‘biggest reorganization since the Cold War,’ they couldn’t get a total headcount on employees — for months, they say.

‘It took us three months to get a list of the people that actually work in the building,’ one senior State Department official told reporters during a briefing at Foggy Bottom on Monday, defending the job cuts that detractors have claimed will damage U.S. diplomacy. 

‘They couldn’t tell you how many people worked here,’ the official said. ‘It’s sort of scary as a taxpayer and as a public servant to think that we don’t even know how many employees we have. This is a national security agency, you know. Who are these people?’

The reorganization will result in a department with about 3,000 fewer employees. Around half of those took a voluntary buyout, and the other half were given reduction in force (RIF) notices.

 

A handful of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s closest advisors evaluated over 700 domestic offices within the State Department, submitting RIF (reduction in force) notices to employees in those they found to be ‘duplicative’ or ‘inefficient.’ 

The idea, officials said, was to put a ‘maximum of 12 clearances on any piece of paper,’ meaning documents would go through 12 layers of approval instead ’40, 50 clearances.’

The department had dozens of different offices handling human resources, and when a new employee was hired, they were accepting faxed records on their past work with other agencies. 

‘It’s crazy that a department that’s tasked with so many critical diplomatic, national security functions, with a $50 billion plus budget is running its affairs that way,’ an official said. 

The investigation found three separate offices dealing with sanctions, two handling arms control issues. 

‘Some of these regional offices within this sort of functional civil liberties, civil society, bureaus of democracy, human rights and labor, population, refugees and migration each had their own regional offices in addition to the country desk, regional bureau, construct,’ the official said. ‘Every independent bureau and office had its own executive director, its own HR department, its own payments.We were making payments out of like 60 plus different offices.’

Rubio’s team maintains the reductions focus on nonessential bureaucratic layers while preserving frontline diplomacy. A Supreme Court decision in late June reopened the door for mass federal layoffs after a lower court had blocked the cuts. Legal challenges from unions remain pending, though the reorganization is moving forward. 

The officials shuttered a ‘diplomats in residence’ program, which they determined to be a ‘cushy job.’ 

‘State Department employees are getting paid to go hang out at Georgetown, and sort of recruit for the Foreign Service,’ one official said, ‘without any sort of metrics or accountability.’

They didn’t touch the country desks, those specifically focused on nations like Iran or China, and didn’t fire anyone from passport services or diplomatic security. They did not make cuts at embassies or foreign posts. 

‘We touched the people that are doing these sort of like wasteful, sort of mindboggling functions or places where we found natural efficiencies in combining two offices.’

Critics have warned that cuts to the diplomatic corps could damage U.S. presence globally and cede soft power to China. 

‘A climate change office is not countering China,’ an official shot back. 

The department also shuttered an office that had been tasked with resettling Afghan refugees seeking to flee Talliban rule and culled the Bureau of Population, Refugees & Migration.

‘That office was not doing work that was countering China or serving the national interest,’ the official said. ‘China has overtaken the United States in a number of those countries. So I would argue growth at the State Department has not coincided with a growth of outcomes for the American taxpayer.’ 

In another example, an official told of a Gulf state foreign minister who complained that the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor under the Biden administration kept pushing them to unionize foreign workers. 

‘This created huge diplomatic tension with them,’ the official said. ‘That foreign minister was delighted and wants to work with us on shared prosperity and trade agreements that aren’t trying to to be patronizing to other countries about their domestic affairs.’

Still, the process has sparked palpable tension within the department. Employees gathered tearfully in the Foggy Bottom lobby to say goodbye, some displaying signs reading, ‘Diplomacy matters.’ 

Signs with messages like ‘resist fascism’ and ‘you made an impact’ were taped up throughout the department. 

A group of more than 130 former senior officials, including former National Security Advisor Susan Rice, signed an open letter expressing concern that deep staff reductions could endanger U.S. foreign policy effectiveness.

Some have seized on the results of a whittled-down State Department and foreign aid apparatus: A report by The Atlantic found the Trump administration had given an order to incinerate 500 tons of emergency food that had been purchased during the Biden administration as aid to be distributed in Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

‘It’s a little bit of a shame to see people behaving that way. You sort of wonder whether they had any interest in following the president and sort of, upholding their oath to listen to the commands of the people,’ one official said.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

A former top White House advisor to ex-first lady Jill Biden was subpoenaed to appear before the House Oversight Committee on Wednesday.

Anthony Bernal, former assistant to the president and senior advisor to the first lady, was compelled for a July 16 closed-door deposition after missing a previously agreed-upon interview date late last month.

House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer’s subpoena letter to Bernal read: ‘The Committee seeks information about your assessment of and relationship with former President Biden to explore whether the time has come for Congress to revisit potential legislation to address the oversight of presidents’ fitness to serve pursuant to its authority under Section 4 of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment or to propose changes to the Twenty-Fifth Amendment itself.’

While the deposition is moving forward Wednesday morning, it’s not guaranteed Bernal will show up until he’s seen in the corridors of the House office building where the meeting is taking place.

Comer, R-Ky., is investigating allegations that Biden’s former top White House aides covered up signs of his mental and physical decline while in office, and whether any executive actions were commissioned via autopen without the president’s full knowledge. Biden allies have pushed back against those claims.

‘Original Sin,’ a book by CNN anchor Jake Tapper and Axios political correspondent Alex Thompson, positions Bernal as a fiercely protective aide who was dubbed the leader of the ‘loyalty police’ by other former Biden staffers.

His LinkedIn page lists him as currently working as Jill Biden’s chief of staff in the Transition Office of Former President Joe Biden.

Bernal was originally slated to appear last month for a voluntary transcribed interview, but he and his lawyers backtracked after the Trump administration announced it was waiving executive privilege rights for him and several other former White House staffers.

If he appears, he will be the fourth ex-Biden aide to sit down with House GOP investigators.

Longtime Biden advisor Ashley Williams appeared for a nearly six-hour transcribed interview on Friday, following a brief sit-down by former Biden physician Kevin O’Connor.

O’Connor, like Bernal, appeared under subpoena. His closed-door deposition lasted less than 30 minutes, with the doctor invoking the Fifth Amendment on all questions outside his name.

O’Connor’s lawyers said he did so out of concern for doctor-patient confidentiality. Comer, however, accused him of covering for the octogenarian former president. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

After a relatively quiet week for the S&P 500, we’re seeing some interesting shifts in sector dynamics. Let’s dive into the latest rankings, RRG analysis, and what it means for our portfolio strategy.

Sector Shifts and RRG Insights: Materials on the Move

The big news this week is the ascent of the Materials sector, which has muscled its way into the top five at the expense of the Utilities sector.

The rest of the top five remained steady, but we’re seeing some movement in the lower ranks as well. Consumer Discretionary made a notable jump from #9 to #7, pushing Consumer Staples and Real Estate down a notch each. Energy and Health Care continue to bring up the rear at #10 and #11, respectively.

  1. (1) Technology – (XLK)
  2. (2) Industrials – (XLI)
  3. (3) Communication Services – (XLC)
  4. (4) Financials – (XLF)
  5. (6) Materials – (XLB)*
  6. (5) Utilities – (XLU)*
  7. (9) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*
  8. (7) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
  9. (8) Real-Estate – (XLRE)*
  10. (10) Energy – (XLE)
  11. (11) Healthcare – (XLV)

Weekly RRG

The weekly Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) gives us a broader perspective on sector trends. Technology continues to dominate, firmly entrenched in the leading quadrant, no surprises there. Industrials is showing stability with a short tail in the leading quadrant, indicating a consistent relative uptrend.

Communication Services, however, is raising some eyebrows. It’s lurking in the weakening quadrant with a short tail, suggesting a stable relative uptrend but with negative momentum. Financials are teetering on the edge of the lagging quadrant, a move that demands attention. Materials, despite its rise in the rankings, is actually in the lagging quadrant on the weekly RRG. You will see why it made its way into the top 5 on the daily RRG.

Daily RRG

On the daily RRG, we get a more nuanced picture of short-term sector movements:

  • Materials (XLB) is the star of the show, crossing into the leading quadrant and standing alone in that coveted space.
  • Financials (XLF) is showing weakness, rolling over and heading back towards the lagging quadrant — confirming what we saw on the weekly chart.
  • Communication Services is on the verge of crossing into the lagging quadrant, a sign that is not great for its current #3 ranking.
  • Industrials is flexing its muscles, approaching the leading quadrant with a positive heading.
  • Technology, while rotating into the weakening quadrant, still has ample room to bounce back into leading territory.

Technology

The tech train continues to roll, breaking through resistance around 240 and maintaining its upward trajectory in both price and relative strength. The RS line is pushing higher after a clean breakout from its falling trend, a bullish sign for the sector leader.

Industrials

XLI is following through nicely on both price and relative strength charts. The raw RS line has established a new higher low, dragging the RS ratio higher. In my opinion, this sector looks rock-solid.

Communication Services

Here’s where things get dicey. XLC is clinging to its breakout above 105, but last week’s decline is testing that former resistance as new support. The raw RS line breaking below rising support is a warning sign that this sector could be in for a bumpy ride.

Financials

Similar to Communications Services, Financials has retreated to test old resistance as support. The raw RS line looks even worse here, having broken out of its rising channel weeks ago. Both RRG lines are flirting with the 100 level; a further push into the lagging quadrant seems likely.

Materials

XLB is showing some muscle, breaking out of its falling channel and taking out recent highs. The raw RS line is pushing against falling resistance — if it can break through, we could see a significant turnaround in the RRG lines, confirming the sector’s newfound strength.

Portfolio Performance

Now, for the part that might sting a bit, the portfolio drawdown is ongoing. It’s something trend followers need to learn to live with. Currently, the portfolio is down about 2% for the year, while the S&P 500 is up over 6%. That puts us roughly 8% behind the benchmark YTD.

It’s not a comfortable position, but it’s part of the game. Trend-following strategies often lag in choppy or rapidly changing markets. The key is to stay disciplined and trust in the long-term efficacy of our approach.

#StayAlert and have a great week, Julius


Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is riding a wave of surging optimism, smashing past $112k as retail and institutional capital pour into the cryptocurrency. Some say the market has grown euphoric, and that a sharp pullback may be lurking around the corner. Others believe this is just the beginning of another leg higher.

A few key questions to guide your analysis: What does $BTCUSD’s history tell us about breakouts above major resistance after a prolonged period of sideways movement? If it’s the start of another move higher, how can you project an upside target? And, if it reverses, where could support levels come into play?

What $BTCUSD’s History Reveals About Breakouts and Big Rallies

Let’s begin by taking a look at a 3-year weekly chart.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF $BTCUSD. Note the crypto’s impressive rallies after clearing resistance following a prolonged period of sideways trading.

In 2023, $BTCUSD traded sideways for six months, repeatedly failing to break above resistance around $31k. But once it did, the crypto soared more than 126% before a major pullback.

A similar pattern unfolded in 2024: seven months in a wide range, unable to clear resistance between $71k and $73k. When $BTCUSD finally broke out in November, it staged a parabolic move, rallying nearly 47% before pulling back again, setting another key resistance zone that brings it to overhead resistance range between $110k–$112k.

So this answers the question posed about $BTCUSD’s historical tendencies after breaking above a prolonged range. Historically, the crypto tends to stage an outsized run once it clears critical resistance. But will it happen this time around? If so, how can you estimate a potential upside target? And if the breakout fails, where might $BTCUSD find support?

Seasonality Trends: $BTCUSD’s Strongest Months

Before looking at a daily chart, let’s look at $BTCUSD’s seasonality chart going back 10 years. If you’re curious as to how the crypto has performed during the summer months, maybe this can help.

FIGURE 2. 10-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF $BTCUSD. Most months on average have been quite strong for the asset, but October’s performance has been strong, with an average seasonal return of 21%.

According to its seasonality performance, July is arguably strong with a favorable positive close rate (70%) and return (9.6%). However, October is the crypto’s strongest month, with an 89% positive close rate and an average return of 21%. Over the last 10 years, $BTCUSD’s performance has been volatile, which accounts for the outsize returns on this chart. While seasonal tendencies don’t guarantee a repeat, knowing the general bullish/bearish seasonality context can help inform your analysis and trading decisions.

Now, let’s look at a daily chart to find entry points or estimate an upside target while identifying support, should its breakout fail to follow through.

$BTCUSD Breaks Critical $112K Resistance

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF $BTCUSD. The asset just broke above critical resistance. If you have a position, now’s the time to estimate potential price targets.

$BTCUSD just broke the critical resistance level of $112k. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating strong momentum, easing into an overbought reading. While there’s no way to fundamentally determine the crypto’s upside target, one technical method is to use a measured move by taking the height of the prior range and adding it to the top of the range (or the breakout level; this varies by trader).

Calculating an Upside Target Using a Measured Move Approach

Measuring the range from the support area around $98k up to $110–112k (we’ll settle for $110k), you can project that distance of $12k above the top level of the breakout range, which implies a potential target near $124k, more or less.

$110k breakout + $12k range height = $122k–$124k target, depending on entry.

However, note that some traders don’t wait for a 100% measured move before taking profits. Some will exit positions as soon as a 60% move has occurred, but that really depends on the trader.

Key Support Levels to Watch if the Breakout Fails

Now, if $BTCUSD fails to follow through and reverses, you can reasonably expect support at roughly these three levels:

  • The breakout level near $112k.
  • A strong historical support level at around $110k.
  • Another support level within the previous trading range (shaded red) near $100k, which coincides with concentrated levels of trading activity, according to the Volume-by-Price (the horizontal volume bars on the left side of the chart).

If $BTCUSD falls below the previous trading range, that is, below $98k, then the current rally is likely over.

What to Do Now

Ideally, a trader’s entry point would have been at $112k. Considering that some platforms allow fractional lots of $BTCUSD, some people may choose to enter smaller positions, as a fractional position would minimize risk and reward.

If you already have a position in $BTCUSD, put it in your ChartLists, and set a price alert at $124k or any measured move percentage below that 100% target level (like 60% of the measured move would be at $119k).

If the breakout fails, expect a near-term bounce between $110k and $112k. However, a move lower toward $100k or $98k would likely signal an end to the bullish thesis. Traders might even consider placing a stop a few points below $98k to avoid the likelihood of further downside.

At the Close

$BTCUSD has a history of explosive moves after clearing major resistance, but it can just as easily blindside you with a sudden reversal. That’s why it’s crucial to keep upside and downside levels in mind. Seasonality also favors the bulls, with most months delivering favorable returns. Add the crypto to your ChartLists and set price alerts to track whether your upside target is hit, or whether downside levels signal either an early bounce or a failed rally.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Join Dave as he reviews three common candle patterns traders can use to identify potential turning points. From bullish engulfing patterns to evening star patterns, Dave gives insights on how to leverage these powerful candle signals to anticipate market shifts. He also shows combining candle patterns with conventional technical analysis tools can help improve success rates.

This video originally premiered on July 14, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

Mani Alkhafaji, vice president of corporate of development and investor relations at First Majestic Silver (TSX:AG,NYSE:AG) discusses silver’s recent price rise.

He notes that the gold-silver mining ratio is at seven to one, while the price ratio is at 90 to one.

‘That tells us silver needs to play catch up to collapse that ratio,’ he said.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Has silver’s moment finally arrived?

Precious metals analyst Ted Butler believes the answer is ‘yes.’

‘I think this is the moment, because we broke through technically what was a really important level — that US$35, US$36 (per ounce) level,’ he said. He sees a clear path for silver to outperform gold.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com