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March 30, 2026

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A political newcomer and former reality star running in Virginia’s Democratic senatorial primary is causing an uproar in his party after breaking with them on gerrymandering and a slew of new gun control efforts.

Mark Moran, a former contestant on the HBO Max series “FBoy Island” and previously a Wall Street banker, is challenging longtime Senate Intelligence Committee ranking member Mark R. Warner, D-Va., whom he calls an “oligarch” who is no longer serving his constituents.

Warner is the former richest and now fourth-richest senator, with a net worth upwards of $200 million, and is running for his fourth term despite a snippet unearthed by Moran showing him pledging to serve only two.

“Since the establishment is already mad at me, here’s another truth: Virginia Democrats are completely wrong on the Second Amendment,” Moran said on X after invoking the ire of Virginia’s top Senate Democrat for opposing her politically charged redistricting effort.

YOUR 2A RIGHTS ARE ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK AS VIRGINIA DEMS PLOT INSANE GUN BANS

“After facing a personal safety issue, I got a gun. It made me realize how extreme our party’s stance has become,” Moran said. “Dan Helmer’s (loser) July 1st ban literally classifies regular handguns as ‘assault firearms’ so the government can take them away.”

Helmer, a Democratic state delegate from Fairfax, did not respond to a request for comment. He has already launched a bid to run in one of the newly drawn congressional districts that have yet to be approved by the voters on April 21.

Moran said the Founding Fathers crafted the Second Amendment to protect the U.S. from tyranny.

“[That is] whether that tyranny comes from Donald Trump or a state legislature trying to disarm you. Our right to protect ourselves shall not be infringed,” Moran said.

The Falls Church native’s comments irritated a handful of other Democratic figures within a few hours of his post, including Democratic strategist Adam Parkhomenko — the founder of “Ready For Hillary” when the former first lady was eyeing the White House in the mid-2010s.

GOP-LED COUNTIES PUSH BACK AGAINST DEMOCRAT’S REDISTRICTING CHARGE, TESTING VIRGINIA’S CONSTITUTIONAL LIMITS

“Go be a p—- in someone else’s party. We’re not doing that anymore,” Parkhomenko said on X in response to Moran.

Virginia Senate President L. Louise Lucas, D-Portsmouth, who has posted at times raunchy memes celebrating Democrats’ flip of the governorship and push to draw out all but one Republican congressman in Virginia, lambasted Moran’s tweet on that matter, spurring his gun rights commentary.

“Anyone against our redistricting efforts to stand up to Donald Trump doesn’t share our values as Democrats,” Lucas said in a statement on X. “If you want to oppose redistricting, you picked the wrong primary to run in. [By the way] I endorse Mark Warner.”

Moran had called his fellow Democrats’ cartographical creativity “extremely anti-democratic and that it is a reactionary policy to Donald Trump that was created by DC consultants.”

He noted that Virginia voters already approved a resolution in 2019 to remove the legislature from redistricting considerations and slammed the new maps for “slic[ing] up Arlington and tak[ing] away the voices of everyone outside Northern Virginia.”

“In every local Democratic committee I’ve been in, when this issue comes up, nobody can defend it, it’s just ‘well this is what the party says is best’ – NO. The Democratic Party loses because of reactionary maneuvers and because it doesn’t have a big bold vision for the future,” he said.

VIRGINIA DEM ADMITS REDISTRICTING PUSH AIMS TO ‘STOP TRUMP’, NOT ABOUT ‘FAIRNESS’

“I can’t hold my tongue any longer despite what this will do to me with the Dems in Virginia.”

Moran also has spoken out against the proliferation of data centers, sucking up power from the grid in both West Virginia and Virginia and allegedly increasing costs on residential consumers.

He posited a plan to tax the data centers to create a free-college fund.

While Moran came across as moderate on those issues, a report from the New York Post showed his campaign platform includes abolishing ICE and passing “Medicare-for-all,” which the paper said places him to Warner’s left on those key issues.

“This year is the 250th anniversary of our country; now is the time for a peaceful revolution against the billionaires, the tech oligarchs, the data centers and all the other big money interests,” he said in a statement obtained by the Post.

Fox News Digital reached out to Warner’s campaign, Moran’s campaign and Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s office for comment.

FIRST ON FOX: States that decline to opt in to the Education Freedom Tax Credit (EFTC) could forgo nearly $23 billion in education funding over the next three years, according to a new analysis from the America First Policy Institute.

To highlight those potential losses, the group will launch an interactive Funding Loss Calculator designed to show how much each non-participating state stands to lose in charitable donations tied to the federal tax credit program. 

GET RID OF THE EDUCATION DEPARTMENT. GIVE POWER TO PARENTS

The projections estimate that 23 states could miss out on nearly $23 billion between 2027 and 2029—equivalent to more than 4.1 million lost scholarship opportunities for students.

“We wanted to make sure that governors know and especially, the people in the states know, what is being foregone if they do not opt in to this federal tax credit scholarship program,” Erika Donalds, chair of educational opportunity at AFPI, told Fox News Digital.

“The program will provide not just private school tuition, but homeschool expenses, curriculum assistance, tutoring, special needs services, dual enrollment and so many other resources for families,” Donalds said, adding that the funds come from private donations and not state budgets.

She added that, so far, 28 governors have opted into the program.

LA UNITED SCHOOL DISTRICT SCANDAL LEADS TO CHARGES AS $22M SCHEME ALLEGEDLY DRAINED FUNDS MEANT FOR STUDENTS

Under the policy, taxpayers can receive up to $1,700 in dollar-for-dollar federal tax credits for donations to scholarship-granting organizations, which fund K–12 expenses such as private school tuition, homeschooling, tutoring and special needs services. But only students in participating states are eligible to benefit.

That means taxpayers in states that opt out can still claim the credit—but their contributions are redirected to organizations in other states, effectively sending education funding elsewhere.

As a result, the calculator allows users to model different participation rates and view projected losses on a state-by-state basis. Supporters say the tool is meant to underscore the potential consequences for governors weighing whether to join the program.

“Every parent deserves to make education decisions on behalf of their children. We have seen state after state where parents are begging for school choice options,” Donalds said.

“In Texas, in just one month, 250,000 applicants for a school choice program that is only going to accommodate about 80,000 students. In Tennessee, over 50,000 applications for a program that accommodates 20,000 students. There should not be wait lists on education freedom,” she added.

Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., is calling on prosecutors to try, convict and punish the undocumented killer of Stephanie Minter, arguing that he must face American justice before he’s ordered to leave the country.

Kaine said he fears deportation could be a form of leniency.

“I’m not sure that if he’s deported, [that] he will really face the punishment that he should face. If you do a deportation now, what’s the guarantee he would really face severe consequences for what he’s done?” Kaine said.

“I think he should be prosecuted to the full extent of the law and then possibly deported after that, but I wouldn’t want him to escape accountability for the crime.”

TRUMP ADMIN ASKS SPANBERGER, VIRGINIA OFFICIALS NOT RELEASE ILLEGAL CHARGED WITH GROPING HIGH SCHOOL GIRLS

Authorities are charging Abdul Jalloh, a 32-year-old Sierra Leone native, with the murder of Stephanie Minter after authorities found her dead at a bus stop in Fairfax, Virginia last month.

Jalloh had already been arrested more than 30 times before his fatal confrontation with Minter, according to the Department of Homeland Security. Among others, his previous charges included rape, malicious wounding, assault, drug possession, identity theft, trespassing and more.

Local authorities dropped previous charges against Jalloh, allowing him to walk free.

IGNORED ICE DETAINERS ‘PUT LIVES AT RISK,’ DHS SAYS, TARGETING NEWSOM, PRITZKER, HEALEY

Kaine believes this time should be different.

“I think he should be prosecuted to the full extent of the law and then possibly deported after that,” Kaine said.

Jalloh has been charged with second-degree murder.

Even as questions remain about why Virginia authorities let Jalloh go, Kaine, who served as governor of Virginia from 2006 to 2010, posited that ICE may have failed to follow through on requests to detain Jalloh ahead of Minter’s murder.

“My experience when I was governor — and this is now 15 or 20 years ago — is that we would normally let ICE know before we let anybody out of prison in Virginia, and then they wouldn’t show up,” Kaine said.

VIRGINIA PROSECUTOR’S RECORD ON VIOLENT OFFENDERS SCRUTINIZED AFTER ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT CHARGED IN MOM’S MURDER

“We would give them two weeks’ notice [and say] ‘Hey, here’s somebody who’s here, come pick them up,’ and they wouldn’t show up. That was more my experience.”

Fox Digital reached out to the Department of Homeland Security for comment.

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s vast missile system is the brainchild of the U.S.-designated state-sponsor of terrorism, the communist North Korea regime, which works hand in glove with Iran, according to one of the world’s leading experts on the Iran-North Korea strategic alliance.

“The missile launched at Diego Garcia was a Musudan. The Iranians bought 19 of these from the North Koreans and took delivery in 2005. They have had this capability since 2005 — and this is no ‘secret weapon,’” Bruce Bechtol, who co-authored with Anthony Celso the groundbreaking book “Rogue Allies: The Strategic Partnership Between Iran and North Korea,” told Fox News Digital.

Fox News Digital reported last week that Iran significantly escalated its war effort against the U.S. with its launch of two intermediate-range ballistic missiles toward Diego Garcia—roughly 2,500 miles from Iran.

TRUMP PROVEN RIGHT ON IRAN’S LONG-RANGE MISSILE CAPABILITY AS REGIME TARGETS US-UK BASE, EXPERTS SAY

Bechtol said, “The most important threat from Iran as the war with the United States and Israel has evolved has been the ballistic missiles, launched not only at U.S. facilities and Israeli cities, but also at neighboring Islamic countries. Thus, it is important to consider this capability and where Iran got it.”

He said, “The short-range ballistic missiles that Iran has launched at key U.S. facilities and at neighboring Arab states include a key system – the ‘QIAM.’ The QIAM was developed and improved with North Korean assistance… North Korea has proliferated a lot to Iran that we are seeing right now in the war.”

The joint U.S.-Israeli war against Iran’s regime, the world’s worst state-sponsor of terrorism, according to the U.S. State Department, has entered its fifth week.

Bechtol, who is a professor of political science in the Department of Security Studies at Angelo State University in Texas, noted that, according to the Wisconsin Project, North Korea had constructed a large missile test facility at Emamshahr, a city in the Fars Province in Iran, and a tracking facility at Tabas in South Khorasan province.

He said North Korea aided Iran with crucial technology “for targets farther away from Iran.”

“The North Koreans proliferated around 150 No Dong systems to Iran in the late 1990s. The Iranians were apparently very happy with the missiles the North Koreans provided them, and, following the earlier precedent of the Scud C factory, contracted with Pyongyang to build a No Dong facility in Iran.”

AFTER THE STRIKES, HOW WOULD THE US SECURE IRAN’S ENRICHED URANIUM?

Bechtol continued, “The Iranians called this ‘new’ missile the Shahab-3. The Shahab-3 is almost an exact copy of the No Dong. Once the Shahab-3 was up and running, the North Koreans moved forward with the Iranians in improving its range and lethality.”

He said, “With assistance from the North Koreans, the Iranians were then able to produce (at the No Dong facility) the Emad and the Ghadr. The Emad has a range of 1,750 kilometers (approx 1,087 miles) and the Ghadr has a range of 1,950 kilometers (approximately 1,212 miles.) The Iranians have used these two systems to target not only Israel, but their Arab neighbors (including U.S. bases located in these countries) throughout the ongoing first stages of this conflict.”

Bechtol said the North Koreans spawned an Iranian missile warhead that weighs a ton and a half to two tons on the powerful Khorramshahr-4. “There is another system capable of hitting Israel that has been even more lethal than any of the systems described thus far. This system is called the ‘Khorramshahr,’ and the fourth version of this system, appropriately called the ‘Khorramshahr-4,’ has been proven to carry a warhead larger than any other in Iran’s missile inventory, armed with what appears to be cluster munitions,” he said.

He described the strategic partnership, noting: “North Korea is the seller and Iran is the buyer. North Korea proliferates weapons systems, technology, parts and components, technicians, engineers and specialists and military capabilities (such as the building of underground facilities) to Iran. Iran pays North Korea with cash and oil. Simple as that.”

Bechtol said the only way to stop this is through sanctions enforcement against North Korea. “The sanctions that are needed are already on the books. But the USA and our key allies need to robustly enforce them. We need to go after banks, front companies and cyber entities in order to squeeze the money and contain or destroy the supply chain.”

He said, “More emphasis needs to be placed, and more action needs to be taken using the Proliferation Security Initiative — an underused aspect of preventing North Korea’s arms from flowing to rogue nations and terrorist groups.  If you cut off the supply chain, you cut off the proliferation.”

The U.S. government will allow a Russian tanker full of crude oil to reach Cuba, effectively easing a blockade that has pushed the island into an energy crisis, according to a report.

The Russian-flagged tanker, the Anatoly Kolodkin, was headed for Cuba on Sunday, carrying an estimated 730,000 barrels of oil, The New York Times reported, citing a U.S. official who had been briefed on the matter.

The tanker Anatoly ⁠Kolodkin was just off the eastern tip of Cuba on Sunday, ship tracking data showed.

“We have a tanker out there. We don’t mind having somebody get a boatload, because they need … they have to survive,” President Donald Trump told reporters on Sunday when asked about the report.

CUBA’S ENTIRE ELECTRICAL GRID COLLAPSES, LEAVING WHOLE ISLAND WITHOUT POWER

“If a country wants to send some oil into Cuba right now, I have no problem whether it’s Russia or not,” he added.

Trump had sought to restrict oil shipments to Cuba in an effort to pressure its government.

The U.S. government has temporarily eased some sanctions on Russian oil shipments to help stabilize global energy markets amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran that began last month.

CUBAN OFFICIAL REVEALS MILITARY ‘PREPARING’ FOR CONFLICT AFTER TRUMP CONSIDERS ‘TAKING’ ISLAND

The Anatoly Kolodkin, which departed from Primorsk, Russia, could soon dock at the Matanzas port in Cuba if it remains on its current path, according to tracking services MarineTraffic and LSEG.

The oil would provide significant relief to Cuba, where President Miguel Díaz-Canel has said fuel shortages have persisted for months, forcing strict gas rationing and deepening the island’s energy crisis.

The U.S. capture of then-Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January stripped a key Cuban ally who had been providing oil to the island on favorable terms.

The Trump administration then blocked all Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba and vowed to impose punitive tariffs on any third country that supplied shipments to the island, forcing Mexico to stop its exports to Cuba.

Another ship, the Hong Kong-flagged Sea Horse, was also carrying about 200,000 barrels of Russian fuel to Cuba, but was rerouted to Venezuela.

A flurry of bets made prior to major announcements about the Iran war has ramped up speculation that individuals or groups with advance knowledge of U.S. military plans are cashing in on insider information.

And while prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi now say they are taking more proactive measures designed to prevent such illicit activity, experts say there have been few signs so far that Trump administration regulators are cracking down.

“You need the deterrent factor that exists on the government side,” said Chris Ehrman, an attorney who previously served as head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s whistleblower office. Without it, he said, simply allowing the platforms to self-regulate often amounts to “whipping them with a wet noddle.”

So far, the suspect bets have been largely concentrated on Polymarket, a platform that allows users to wager on the likelihood of certain events taking place. But in at least one case, speculation about a possible insider trade has migrated to a more traditional market.

The CFTC did not respond to a request for comment. In an interview this week with the Washington Reporter, an online conservative publication, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig pushed back on the idea that his office was not taking on the issue.

“There’s this false media narrative that CFTC-regulated markets are the Wild West and have no regulation and that’s blatantly false,” he said. “The CFTC uses complex surveillance tools and has seasoned career staff that pro-actively monitor these markets for insider trading and fraud.”

The CFTC recently issued guidance that reminded prediction market platforms of their responsibilities to limit insider trading.

Noah Solowiejczyk, a partner at law firm Fenwick & West and a former federal prosecutor, said the agency has recently shown signs it wants to take insider trading cases more seriously.

“I think you’ll see an enforcement action or prosecution happen” in an events-driven insider trading case, Solowiejczyk predicted.

Once relegated to the world of finance, insider has become a major topic in recent years as concerns about everything from politicians’ stock trades to professional athletes’ performances are now widely scrutinized for evidence of manipulation — fueled in part by the ongoing creep of investing and gambling onto smartphones and into everyday life.

Data suggests traders with advanced knowledge of geopolitical events may have collectively pocketed millions from recent bets on Polymarket. Last month, in the run-up to the latest round of American and Israeli attacks on Iran, some $529 million was traded on the platform tied to the timing of the strikes, Bloomberg News reported.

Earlier this week, analytics firm Bubblemaps said a series of connected Polymarket accounts had earned $1 million over the past two years predicting U.S. and Israeli strikes in the Middle East.

On Monday, approximately 15 minutes before President Donald Trump posted that there had been “productive” talks with Iran, stocks and oil futures trades on the main exchange run by longtime markets firm CME Group saw an unusual burst of volume compared to the relatively subdued backdrop seen the rest of that morning.

The bets predicted stocks would rise and oil prices would fall that day — precisely what happened once Trump made his announcement.

Depending on when they closed, the trades could have yielded millions — though shortly after Trump’s post, Iran denied there had been direct talks, and the market moves reversed somewhat.

Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. A CME spokespersn declined to comment.

Solowiejczyk said the CFTC has likely been hampered by staffing shortages, which may be impacting its ability to take on new cases. Barron’s magazine recently reported that the CFTC has made significant cuts in its enforcement division, including the loss of all enforcement attorneys in its Chicago office.

It is not clear to what extent the anonymity that’s available to traders on Polymarket and Kalshi would hinder a federal investigation into illicit trading.

While part of Polymarket is registered in the U.S., making it subject to federal know-your-customer requirements, another part is registered in Panama — something that could make it harder to trace individuals making insider bets. Experts also say traders can circumvent geographic restrictions by using virtual private networks, or VPNs, that mask which country they are operating in.

So far, no American has faced federal charges in connection with insider trading on event-driven news. In February, Israel charged two of its military service members with using classified information to place bets on Polymarket related to unspecified combat operations.

Polymarket only recently began accepting trades from U.S.-based users, following an effort by the Trump administration to end a Biden-era push to restrict its use here.

Kalshi is fully registered in the U.S., and recently suspended an editor for influencer MrBeast in connection with alleged insider trading.

Many of the suspect bets on Polymarket are placed by accounts that are either new or solely focused on one specific outcome, further suggesting insiders could be behind them.

Even prior to the recent military operations and the accompanying suspicious bets, accusations of insider trading on Polymarket had begun to surface.

In January, a Polymarket user earned some $400,000 betting that then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would soon be out of office. One trader appeared to make approximately $1.2 million forecasting whom Google would announce as the most-searched people of 2025.

In response to a question about insider trading in November, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan told “60 Minutes” that “having an edge” is “a good thing.”

Coplan said that while he was focused on the ethics of insider transactions, it was “sort of an inevitability that this will happen, and there’s a lot of benefits from it.”

This week, Polymarket and Kalshi both unveiled measures designed to further crack down on insider trading.

Polymarket announced new rules explicitly stating users cannot act on insider information or trade on events whose outcome they could influence.

Kalshi said it was deploying technology that would “preemptively block politicians, athletes, and other relevant people” from trading in politics and sports markets. It also said it was adding a whistleblower function to its markets homepage that would allow users to flag potential violations.

A representative for Kalshi said the company has not been involved in the recent suspect trades. “We ban insider trading and enforce it,” a spokeswoman said in an email.

Polymarket, recently valued at $9 billion, counts Donald Trump Jr. as an investor. The president’s eldest son is also a strategic adviser to Kalshi, its top competitor.

White House representatives denied any wrongdoing originated from the administration and blasted insinuations that they were.

“All federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use of nonpublic information for financial benefit,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement.

“However, any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.”

“The President has no involvement in business deals that would implicate his constitutional responsibilities,” David Warrington, White House counsel, said in a statement. “President Trump performs his constitutional duties in an ethically sound manner and to suggest otherwise is either ill-informed or malicious.”

“Don does not interface with the federal government as part of his role with any company that he invests in or advises and has no influence or involvement with administration policies relating to prediction markets,” a representative for Donald Trump Jr. said in a statement.

Members of Congress have taken a more circumspect view of event-market platforms, putting forward legislation that would ban elected officials and government employees from using them and restricting the types of events, such as war or deaths, users can wager on.

The most recent bill, introduced by Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., and Rep. Greg Casar, D-Texas, would ban trades on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination and events “where an individual knows or controls the outcome.”

“There’s no getting around the fact that any prediction market where somebody knows or controls the outcome of a bet is ripe for corruption,” Murphy said in a statement.

“Even worse, prediction markets are also an avenue by which government decisions get influenced by who’s making money off them, and that should be unforgivable to the American public,” he said.

President Donald Trump is used to bending financial markets to his will.

But with the war in Iran, he may have reached the limit of his ability to do so.

On Friday, the S&P 500 closed down 1.7% and notched its fifth-straight weekly decline, its worst stretch since 2022 and a sign of rapidly faltering confidence in a swift resolution to the Iran war.

Since the U.S. attacked Iran on Feb. 28, the S&P 500 has declined about 7%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.7% Friday and has lost nearly 4,000 points since the start of the war. It is now down more than 10% from its most recent high, a correction in technical terms.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell further into correction territory Friday, closing down 2% and off 13% since its record close in October.

Oil prices also rose sharply, with U.S. crude topping $100 a barrel and global Brent crude at approximately $114 at around 4 p.m. ET. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note surged to 4.4%, the highest since last summer. Some energy stocks, like Exxon, traded near all-time highs.

Shortly after stock markets had closed Thursday, Trump announced he was pausing attacks on Iranian energy sites for 10 days. But stocks barely budged.

Just days earlier, they had rocketed higher Monday when the president announced there had been “productive” talks with Iranian representatives, so he would pause strikes on Iranian power facilities for five days.

“The market is looking beyond commentary from the administration,” said Adam Turnquist, chief strategist at LPL Financial investment group, which manages nearly $2 trillion in assets. “They actually want concrete details and a resolution. And actions speak louder than words, that’s really present in [current] price action.”

This new reality stands in contrast to Trump’s ability to move markets throughout his first term and into the outset of his second.

Trump spent the better part of 2025 whipsawing traders via frequent changes regarding tariff levels. Eventually, a pattern emerged: The president would announce a new import duty, markets would fall, and Trump would usually end up reversing himself in some way.

The trend even got a nickname, coined by a columnist for the Financial Times: “TACO” — for “Trump Always Chickens Out.” (Last month, the Supreme Court struck down many of the tariffs.)

This time, the chain of events unleashed by Trump’s decision to attack Iran are such that a return to prewar conditions — and market levels — is virtually impossible in the short or even medium term, experts say.

The disruption to flows of oil and gas has been so substantial that transport costs, and ultimately the price paid per barrel, are likely to stay elevated indefinitely. Even when the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has used as a chokepoint to drive concessions from the West, eventually reopens, the cost of transiting through it has likely gone up for the foreseeable future.

And the broader fallout on the economy and consumer purchases is already being felt.

That, in turn, has made interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve less likely, because the higher oil costs are set to contribute to already sticky inflation. The odds of a rate hike before the end of the year have now outpaced the odds of a cut.

“Let’s say hostilities end tomorrow — the market will rally, but it’s not necessarily ripping back to where it was before because of the disruptions that have occurred,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers financial group. “You’re not going to see oil go back to where it was immediately. You’re not going to see markets price in rate cuts the way they were before.”

White House spokesman Kush Desai said Friday that Trump “continues to be a powerful force driving the market’s confidence in the United States as the most dynamic, pro-business economy in the world.”

“Once the military objectives of Operation Epic Fury have been achieved and the market’s short-term disruptions are behind us, everyday investors are set to reap a windfall in a booming American economy,” Desai said.

A day earlier, the president said he was not concerned about the market’s recent performance.

Oil prices “have not gone up as much as I thought, Scott, to be honest with you,” he said during a Cabinet meeting, addressing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. “It’s all going to come back down to where it was and probably lower.”

Markets have not fallen further because the outlook for earnings growth remains bullish, Turnquist said — though that could change the longer the conflict drags on and further impinges on consumer spending and business investment.

And compared to prior oil shocks, the U.S. economy is less oil-intensive, as it has transitioned to one that is largely service-oriented. Global oil markets have also been supported by America’s oil production boom over the past decade — with more supplies online, overall prices are less likely to rise as much.

Yet by some metrics, stocks were already considered expensive prior to the hostilities. Having already contended with stretched valuations, traders may find it much harder to power stock prices back to the record levels seen just prior to the start of the latest conflict.

“The risk-reward is still very heavily weighted toward [the] risk” of further stock-price declines,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak financial group.

Should hostilities persist, Trump’s ability to influence markets will only further erode, Sosnick predicted.

“He now realizes he’d like to jawbone his way out of it, but it’s not that easy at this point because the situation encompasses so many moving parts and difficult variables,” Sosnick said. “It doesn’t lend itself to a quick set of comments mollifying investors.”